ESCWA organized in collaboration with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in Amman – Jordan, a five-day “training workshop on demographic estimation” an activity part of the project entitled “Strengthening national capacities in social statistics and preparedness for the upcoming ICPD@20”.
Vital registration data (the classic source of for producing fertility and mortality estimates) are often unavailable or too poor to be used for demographic estimation in the Arab region. This makes census data, which are more readily available, vital to the production of various demographic indicators such as, population estimates, growth rate, child mortality, life expectancy at birth and total fertility rate. From here stems the importance of evaluating census and vital registration data and choosing methods for calculating current estimates for demographic indicators, including indirect estimates of infant and child mortality and total fertility rate.
To this end, the workshop focused on training statisticians working in national statistical offices on producing demographic estimates from available data sources such as the census, using MS Excel and the computer software MORTPAK
The workshop covered the following topics: crude demographic rates (crude death rates, crude birth rates); population growth rate; population age distribution and age-specific rates, infant mortality rates, estimating demographic changes, fertility measures (age-specific fertility rates, total fertility rates; the concept of a life table (types and interpretation of a life table); methods for evaluating the quality of census data (population pyramids, age ratios, sex ratios, age heaping) and methods for evaluating the quality of vital registration data; use of model life tables to produce estimates of under-five mortality measures; indirect methods for estimating and producing infant and child mortality; use of Brass method. Moreover, the workshop covered scientific methods for estimating demographic indicators based on sample surveys such as the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and the PAPFAM. Fifteen participants from ten Arab countries and 3 international experts in the field of demographic estimation attended the workshop
Finally, it sought to come out with a future roadmap fulfilling the training needs of countries in the demographic estimation methods and population projections.
Cairo, Egypt
